登陆注册
48556900000025

第25章 附录(3)

For instance car sales expanded by an awesome 56% last year to 1.1 million units - but this is small beer for a country with a population of 1.3 billion. China is firing on all cylinders:retail sales are rising by around 10%,exports are booming and foreign direct investment is up by 57% to 13bn (?8.25bn).

The interesting thing is that China is now a much more open economy than it was,thanks mainly to its membership of the World Trade Organisation and the tariff cuts that have gone with it.

Although exports have been growing by comfortably over 20% during the past few years,imports have soared at an annual rate of over 40% in the latest half-year. This makes China one of the few big economies helping to boost world trade in a positive manner.

It ought also to be mildly reassuring to the rest of the world. There are - very real - fears that China could acquire a stranglehold on the world"s manufacturing capacity because of its formidable combination of high skills and low labour costs.

The lesson of this year"s figures is that the more prosperous China becomes the more it wants to buy goods and services from the rest of the world. The health of east Asia"s economy used to be a function of the state of the US to which it supplies so many final goods and components.

That is still true to an extent. But China has now emerged as a dynamic economy in its own right capable of energising the entire Pacific Rim. It won"t be long before western countries start looking to China,as they have to the US,Europe and Japan,to become the locomotive of world recovery. With the rest of the world economy in the state it is in,that moment can"t happen too soon.

(2)The Daily Telegraph:Economic Agenda. July 3,2003,Thursday (Filed:May 11,2003). “Don’t panic about the economic cost of ”by Roger Bootle.

Don"t panic about the economic cost of Sars

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome,or Sars,has caused many deaths and much distress across the world. But it has caused even more alarm than pain. There is a suggestion that its economic effects may even bring on a world recession. Even though Sars has not affected the health of many Western commentators,it may have affected their judgment.

The facts

First,we need to be clear about the scale of the problem. The World Health Organisation (WHO) considers that the Sars outbreak began in November 2002. So far,nearly 7,000 cases have been reported worldwide;of these,fewer than 500 have resulted in death.

China and Hong Kong together account for almost 90 per cent of all known cases and more than 85 per cent of all Sars deaths so far.

Even in these countries,Sars has infected tiny proportions of the population - 0.0003 per cent of China"s 1.3bn people and 0.02 per cent of Hong Kong"s 7m.

Nevertheless,there have clearly been some major economic effects in Asia,notably on the travel business. By early April,US airlines were reporting an 80 per cent drop in bookings to Asia. And there have been some headlinegrabbing cancellations. The Rolling Stones have cancelled the Hong Kong leg of their latest tour and scrapped their debut in China,scheduled for early April. Santana"s Asian tour has also been called off.

Moreover,potential consumers are staying at home rather than eating in restaurants and shopping. In Hong Kong,retail sales fell by 12.5 per cent year-on-year in February. The April decline could be as high as 15 to 20 per cent.

Figures show a steady drop in tourist arrivals in Hong Kong,from 1.7m in December to 1.4m in February. The Hong Kong purchasing managers" index (PMI) recently signalled the sharpest contraction in the survey"s brief history.

At face value,it points to a 7 per cent drop in GDP. In Singapore too,the impact is manifest. Tourist arrivals have been falling - but manufacturing came close to expanding again in April after contracting in March,according to this week"s PMI.

Outside Asia,Sars has been most prevalent in Canada. In Toronto,officials said recently that the number of cases there was subsiding and an earlier warning by the WHO to travellers to stay away has been lifted. However,this advice hurt the travel and tourism sector,reducing demand for aircraft seats and hotel rooms,and hitting retail sales. The Bank of Canada has already warned that second quarter GDP growth will be reduced as a result of these problems.

Perspective and offsets

There is clearly a chance that Sars will spread outside the main infected areas and that alarm about the risks could so affect people"s behaviour that recessionary forces would be stoked up across the world.

Sometimes non-economic events like diseases do have serious,and even catastrophic,consequences. The Black Death,which killed about a third of Europeans in the 14th century,transformed the European economy. In the last century,the outbreak of Spanish flu just after the First World War killed 50 million people,far more than died in the fighting itself. That was both a human and economic catastrophe.

But on the evidence so far,an alarming spread to the West,and even an intensification of the rate of infection in China and Hong Kong,look unlikely. I suspect that Sars will prove to be another of those non-economic events which are supposed to knock the economy for six and in the end prove to have little lasting influence. Perhaps the most spectacular recent international example was the Millennium Bug. Remember that?

We had recent experience of something similar in the UK with the foot and mouth crisis. Clearly,some people were devastated by these awful events but the overall economic impact did not live up to its billing. The effect,which some excitable commentators thought might be as large as 2 percent of GDP,was probably more like 0.3 per cent. I reckon that the effect of Sars on the world economy will also turn out to be minor - and for broadly similar reasons.

同类推荐
  • LivinginChina

    LivinginChina

    ManyChinesefeelliketheyareonanotherplanetwhentheyvisitforeigncountriesofcompletelydifferentcultures.ProbablythesameistruetoforeignerswhovisitChina.
  • 当英语也成为时尚——生活全由你创造

    当英语也成为时尚——生活全由你创造

    本书摘取了若干耐人寻味、震撼人心的哲理美文和励志故事,包括:“成功永远不会太晚”、“假如我又回到童年”、“循序渐进”等。
  • 英国学生科学读本

    英国学生科学读本

    《英国学生科学读本》是一套英国学生曾经使用的原版科学教材。作者尝试从孩子身边不起眼的细小事物开始,让他们自己走进奇妙的科学殿堂。这套科学读本犹如一部生动有趣的万物简史,书中提到的事物,都是人们天天可见的:狗、猫、麦子、铁、煤、铅笔、大头当然,有些是当地特有的东西,比如英国的硬币——便士。这些内容看起来平常得很,但每篇文章背后都关联着相应的专业科学,让读者学到丰富而有用的知识。《英国学生科学读本》的最后,还收录了一些优美的英语诗歌,描述了身边美丽的自然现象和孩子们的日常活动。对中国读者来讲,此书可谓一套多功能的英语读本。
  • 地道英语脱口而出

    地道英语脱口而出

    本书精选热点单词及句型,用口语交流最热点的主题。本书内容丰富,语言地道。书中附有配套超长600分钟MP3的下载二维码,只需拿起手机扫一扫即可轻松下载MP3,随时随地练习听力和口语,开创外语学习新模式!
  • 课外英语-美国各洲小知识(一)(双语版)

    课外英语-美国各洲小知识(一)(双语版)

    全书共50册,分为美国各州的小知识,七彩缤纷的音符,优美好看的小散文,开心时分的短文,经典流传的寓言,超级高效的短句,实际有用的词汇等等在这些书中,备有单词解释,相关简介,或中文翻译,便于同学们更好的阅读和理解,真正进入文字的内涵当中,准确地和文字进行交流。本册主要介绍加州、科罗拉多州、肯塔基州和路易斯安那州的概况、州长、州鸟、州花、州旗、州歌以及相关资料,附有话里话外部分,主要介绍美国公园和美国科学家。
热门推荐
  • EXO之时空

    EXO之时空

    女主顾紫曦因买了一盘怪怪的专辑而且抱着它睡觉,就此掉入了时空隧道,又被许配给皇子EXO“我靠,传说中的NP呀”紫曦在一旁惊呼。在与皇子们的洞房花烛夜因双月重合又被送了回去,发现那时的历史已经被改变。那时也没有EXO这个组合了,看看女主如何将EXO推向娱乐顶端吧!
  • 九血梵尔

    九血梵尔

    神秘祭坛拉开世界预言,万年结界破除,血染蓝天,神秘种族究竟是福是祸,天赋异禀是否会遭天妒,仙缘神法,论道谁强谁弱,妖神重现,争天地大势,且看绝密种族如何挥舞乾坤,力定山河!
  • 爱的细水长流

    爱的细水长流

    什么时候开始,对于喜欢,对于生活,她思考的越来越多,单纯和复杂,犹如美好与现实的定义,将她分离得明显.
  • 经穴按摩使用手册

    经穴按摩使用手册

    按摩是通过手法作用于人体的肌表,以调整人体的生理、病理状态,从而达到治病和保健的作用。依据祖国医学中的经络学说,经络贯通于人体内外、上下联络脏腑,贯通九窍,是气血运行的途径,也是津液输布的网络。经络壅阻,人体气血不畅,阴阳失调,就会产生疲劳和病变。我国传统中医认为,按摩能够平衡阴阳、调和脏腑、疏通经络、加强营卫气血功能,从而达到扶正祛邪的作用。大量科学研究实践证明,人体接受按摩以后,能使大小循环系统畅通,血流丰富,改善血液循环,加速人体各器官组织的新陈代谢,消除疲劳,解除病痛,具有延年益寿之功效。
  • 主播日常牵红线

    主播日常牵红线

    杓戏是千年前神魔大战后四海八荒唯一的女上神,成天下凡牵红线开直播,后在此基础又添一项:宠她的小朋友。
  • 爱上谷主爹爹

    爱上谷主爹爹

    穿越小说看了多篇,想不到有一天自己也中了奖,意外穿越,她成了名闻天下的神医的义女,神马?亲生老妈来追义父?不行,谷主爹爹是我的!神马?又有个女人要嫁给义父?这怎么行,你敢娶,我就嫁别人!
  • 幻想记事MOON

    幻想记事MOON

    男性?主播?萝莉?一位以顶级玩家闻名的VRMMORPG主播,在他期待已久的新游戏中却被观众蛊惑创建了一个幼女角色。本以为选择怪物方就可以没事的他结果……敬请期待在游戏中的冒险吧!
  • 超体学霸

    超体学霸

    大梦一觉二百余年,醒来时,世界早已物是人非。这里,不是充满未知科技的未来,也不是光怪陆离的玄幻大陆,而是一个逗比的世界!“我读书少,你不要骗我,这玩意真的是飞梭?”“还有你们,不要再找我当赘婿了!老子不嫁!”这里讲述的是,被一群逗比们围绕着的张天满,每天挣扎着活下去的故事。
  • 校园至尊王

    校园至尊王

    当谢文东拥有了魔神的力量会怎样?凌飞将会告诉你!凌飞的志向不是一统黑道,那太小孩子气了,不是成为高官,那限制太多了,不好玩!他的想法其实很简单,那就是成为一个自由自在的有钱有势的人!他没有一统黑道,但是整个天下的黑道唯他马首是瞻,他一介平民,但偌大的官场任他纵横!很牛叉的凌飞刚开始的时候其实只是一个普通的不能普通的高中生,但当那股神秘的力量苏醒以后,一切都变了,从此以后……香车宝马,美女萦绕!黑道商界,任他纵横!整个天地,唯我独尊!
  • Minecraft虚无与暮色

    Minecraft虚无与暮色

    亘古鸿蒙,创世神封印毁灭。世间,六大意志散于世界各地。方块的世界,充满无限可能。狂战,一往无前创造,智慧世间毁灭,意志之傷…………纵横虚无,踏上暮色征程!尽在Minecraft,虚无与暮色!(在世界的故事系列)